Career Planning Spreadsheet(s)

[GBO Possum]

I'm noodling a plan for a spreadsheet which will allow me to do the following:-

• Record times in each and every career race (mine and top rank times)

• Forecast what my total time will be when I finally re-establish times in all events (based on estimates for future times which I'd make based on a % uplift of top rank times)

• Identify the events which would give me the biggest payback if I were to re-do them (identifying my slower times on the longer events that would have the greatest leverage in reducing my overall time

I'm thinking there may be others in our community that would like to use such a tool and would have good ideas for extending the functionality and making it more useful.

I'm also hoping that maybe someone has already built a list of all of the career events so I don't have to re-invent the wheel.

My vision (and that is all it is at this stage), is that the sheet would calculate the following

The total time to date summing times for events completed and the notional time for yet-to-be-completed events (2 hours each I think)
For each event, the % of rank 1 best time attained. (if I take 5% longer than the Rank 1 time, that would record as 105%)
A weighted average of these percentages
Using this weighted average percentage, calculate an estimate of the times for the uncompleted events
Sum all those times to get the final estimate
For each event, calculate the potential savings of time based on a target percentage such as 105%
Use conditional formatting to identify the highest payback events with different colors

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I may make it even more scientific, since I believe, but can not yet prove, that certain track "types" suit me better than others.  So I'm thinking I MAY set different goals for different track "Types".  So what's a track type?  I'm analyzing that right now along these lines:-

What is the relative span of speed for a track between the Class D time (the slowest in all cases), and the fastest time (usually R1, but not always)?
The biggest range is from the following tracks (in order):-
Motegi Super Speedway
Nissan Speedway Reverse (class U)
Nissan Speedway (class U)
Road America
Sunset Peninsula Infield

The smallest are:
TT-Boomslang
TT-Malayan Krait Reverse
TT-Boomslang Reverse
TT-Russell's Viper
TT-King Cobra

It's pretty obvious that the first group require huge speed, the latter ones require good handling.

Next question is "Which tracks have unusual rankings of speeds?".  In other words, do we get a surprise when we compare the achievements of two or more classes of car?  This is harder to analyze, but I'm playing with it.

Ultimately, I'm trying to do the following:-
Find the "type" of track that I am weakest at and try to fix it
Group tracks by "type" and build and tune cars in each class which will suit that "type".

One day, I hope to have a stable of cars such that for any track in any class, I can reach into the stable and choose the "right" car.

So, does anyone have an event list I can copy into this project?

Poss

[Spiny Anteater]

What is the relative span of speed for a track between the Class D time (the slowest in all cases), and the fastest time (usually R1, but not always)?
The biggest range is from the following tracks (in order):-
Motegi Super Speedway
Nissan Speedway Reverse (class U)
Nissan Speedway (class U)
Road America
Sunset Peninsula Infield

The smallest are:
TT-Boomslang
TT-Malayan Krait Reverse
TT-Boomslang Reverse
TT-Russell's Viper
TT-King Cobra

I did a similar thing in the days of FM1 by setting up the spreadsheet to calculate the standard deviation (as a % of average time) of times on a specific track (I have the same function on the FM2 timesheet, but not enough times to make it worthwhile yet). I'm glad to see that you are getting similar results. I found that the times with the highest SD were generally on the fastest tracks (the Speedway and New York (long) had the highest SD's) while the lowest SD's were generally on the twistier tracks (TTInfield aka. King Cobra and Kaido Down).

I suppose that pretty much shows the tracks were the cars make the biggest difference and those where driver skill (or lack thereof ) has more of an impact.

[Blooze]

The Kitchen Sink II has a race list in it.  There's a link to it in the Spreadsheet Archive.

Good luck with your sheet!

$

[GBO Possum]

The Kitchen Sink II has a race list in it.  There's a link to it in the Spreadsheet Archive.

Good luck with your sheet!

$

And so it does.  All 314 races.  Kick me, I'm an idiot.  Thanks Blooze.  And big thanks Tonka, it surely is the "Kitchen Sink".

Maybe if I'd have right-clicked on those things on the left I would have found the "Race List" sheet 

Even has the lap and race lengths in it which is good for calculating speed.

[fndrbndr]

Quick point about the differences between classes on tracks.  Make sure you measure them as percentages.  Three seconds per lap on Road America is nothing, but three seconds per lap on Tsukuba is more than twice the difference, as a percentage (150 seconds vs. about 60 in D class, meaning 2% vs. 5% or so).  Sorry, measurement of statistical deviations and stuff is about the only math on this site where I can contribute, and I wanted to play along.  I'll be quiet now.   

[GBO Possum]

I suppose that pretty much shows the tracks were the cars make the biggest difference and those where driver skill (or lack thereof ) has more of an impact.

Probably explains why the tracks I prefer are the ones away from the tight twisties, and also away from the ovals.   

And yes, I'm measuring percentages

Here is the full list

Min   Track
82%   TT-Boomslang
82%   TT-Malayan Krait Reverse
80%   TT-Boomslang Reverse
80%   TT-Russell's Viper
79%   TT-King Cobra
79%   TT-Death Adder Reverse
79%   TT-Death Adder
79%   TT-Diamondback Reverse
78%   TT-Malayan Krait
78%   TT-Russell's Viper Reverse
78%   Tsukuba Circuit Short
78%   TT-King Cobra Reverse
76%   TT-Inland Taipan
76%   TT-Diamondback
75%   TT-Inland Taipan Reverse
75%   TT-Black Mamba Reverse
75%   Mazda Raceway Laguna Seca
74%   TT-Black Mamba
74%   Tsukuba Circuit
73%   Suzuka Circuit East
73%   Motegi Road Course East
73%   TT-Copperhead
73%   New York Circuit
73%   Suzuka Circuit
73%   TT-Copperhead Reverse
73%   New York Circuit Reverse
72%   Sunset Peninsula Infield Short Reverse
72%   Silverstone Grand Prix Circuit
72%   Sebring International Raceway Club
72%   Mugello Autodromo Internazionale Short
72%   Silverstone National Circuit
72%   Motegi Road Course West
72%   Maple Valley Raceway Short
72%   Suzuka Circuit West
72%   Maple Valley Raceway Short Reverse
72%   Nürburgring Nordschleife
71%   Road Atlanta
71%   Maple Valley Raceway
71%   Mugello Autodromo Internazionale
71%   Sebring International Raceway Short
70%   Road Atlanta Short
70%   Sunset Peninsula Infield Short
70%   Sunset Peninsula Infield Reverse
70%   Sebring International Raceway
70%   Motegi Road Course
70%   Silverstone International Circuit
70%   Maple Valley Raceway Reverse
70%   Sunset Peninsula Infield
70%   Road America
68%   Nissan Speedway
68%   Nissan Speedway Reverse
68%   Motegi Super Speedway

[Blooze]

Okay... 

I've read everything twice...  What is the percent value in your list?

Sorry, I'm a bit obtuse today I guess...

  $

[GBO Possum]

Sorry, I told you that in my head.   

The % column is the ratio of

Time taken for one lap by the fastest car ever
--------------------------------------------
Time taken for one lap by the fastest D Class car

[Blooze]

I'm interested in seeing if your "Typing" is something we can bring to the Car Ranking system.

$

[Moosejaw]

I beleive this FAQ lists all the races.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/console/xbox360/file/932731/48607

EDIT: I've just noticed you've already found the race list elsewhere. Still this FAQ is worth a look.

[GBO Possum]

The vision is slowly coming to reality.  Very slowly.  So far I have entered the results of the first 96 Career races.  Some of the numbers are humbling.

I clearly have a way to go, with far too many event times more than 10% off the world best

[fndrbndr]

Well, event times are often the result of folks bringing a gun to a knife fight, as the old saying goes.  My Copperhead time in the North American open is from an R1 Cadillac I won as a prize car and wanted to try out.  I'll never, ever, ever break that time in a production-class car (Maybe an S7, but I don't know about that, even), and certainly won't beat it in any car that's in keeping with the theme of the event.

[GBO Possum]

I'm embarrassed to say that I generally bring a big gun to the knife fight and even then, the results are not stellar.   

On a positive note, I think my placings are getting better as I progress through career.  Earlier events see me lucky to get in the top 1,000.  For a while now, I have been commonly getting in the top 800, and I recently saw place 19 in one event 

Consistency is the key in Career

[fndrbndr]

Yeah, it's kind of like online racing that way.  My top lap in Maple Valley's B class Enduro was 1:33.xxx, and Bimmer mentioned that he ran about a 1:35 or so (I think...check the Toyota 2000GT thread if this is important).  However, he lapped the field, and I passed the #4 guy on the last lap.  I would assume that he actually ran a better race than I did, even though my best lap is superior.  Online, most of my "podiums" come from just not wiping out.  I'm aggressive when I hotlap, but online, I just try to play mistake-free, and am rarely off the podium.  Of course, if I started finding rooms with more than three people, that might change....hehe.

[GBO Possum]

I'm interested in seeing if your "Typing" is something we can bring to the Car Ranking system.

Sounds like the start of a good idea.  What do you see coming out of it?

The vision is slowly coming to reality.  Very slowly.  So far I have entered the results of the first 96 Career races.  Some of the numbers are humbling.

I clearly have a way to go, with far too many event times more than 10% off the world best

The learning curve is unfolding.  It's taking a lot of time to go through the Career scoreboards and enter the data, but I now have enough to gain a picture of a pattern of improvement.  Feeling better now!  See the attached chart.

When I have all the top times entered, I'll publish here.

To explain the chart - the horizontal axis is the "Event Number", a number I have assigned from the very first Proving Grounds event right through to the last Enduro (eventually, this is incomplete at that end of the chart).  The vertical axis is my speed as a percentage of the top person's speed.

(Oh, and yes, there are some missing points around the 200 mark - another benefit of the exercise of tracking!  I have no idea how I skipped a few races)